The issue of recognition/non-recognition by the Republic of Belarus of independence of the two self-proclaimed Georgian republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, continues to emerge in the relations between RB and RF. A.Lukashenko said earlier that this problem would be considered by the parliament. However, now Mr. Andreichenko, elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, advised Russian colleagues to put hopes in the will of the Belarusian people.
Yet in order to make an appropriate decision, Belarusians need information which seems to be a problem.
All information about the conflict in the Caucasus so far reaches us through Moscow mass media which undoubtedly present only the position of one side.
The issue of recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is only part of a wider problem, which includes the relations between RB and RF, the search by Belarus of its place in the system of international relations, and, most importantly in our view, the problem of actual Russian monopoly in the information space of Belarus, especially in the area of external policy.
Therefore, aiming to provide full information on the conflict in the Caucasus, as well as to give Belarusian society an alternative to the Russian view of the events, we have decided to place at our site materials prepared by the Georgian side. These materials include, among others, an official document of the Georgian Foreign Ministry which lists the main stages of escalation of tensions initiated by Russia in the period from 2004 to August 2008, highlights from the last days before the armed conflict, the course of events after the Russian troops burst into the Georgian territory.
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Why the state kills its own citizens?
The sixth World Day and the second European Day against the death penalty will be marked on 10 October. Belarus is the only country in Europe which refuses to mark this day in its calendar. Until now the death penalty has not been abolished and is being applied in Belarus. There is not a single country in Europe that applies this type of punishment. Even Uzbekistan has abolished the death penalty. Belarus remains the only one European country which applies "lawful homicide". Despite the reduction in the number of death sentences in judicial practice of Belarus (48 such sentences were pronounced in 1997 and 4 in 2008), the death penalty is not going to be abolished. According to experts, the death penalty can be maintained only with the purpose of supporting the dictatorship; the death penalty makes no sense in other cases. Human rights advocate Valyantin Stefanovich says "the death penalty is an old soviet tradition which has been actively practiced during the 30s".
The well-known Belarusian expert Yaroslav Romanchuk answers EXPERTBY.ORG correspondent's questions concerning statements made by the Russian Prime Minister V. Putin during his visit to Minsk on 6 October.
We talk about financial crisis and US dollar weakness, however inflation in the US dollar's sphere is 4%, while in Russia it will reach 15-20%. So which currency is weaker?
By the way, all Russian oligarchs deposit their resources in Western banks, either American or European ones. It is when they transfer all their assets in Russian rubles that you can give some thought to it. If you believe, then start from yourself.
Russia is strongly connected with external markets and is predominately a raw material exporting country, therefore it will surely not be seriously affected. It will be large oligarchic structures worth tens of billions of U.S. dollars which will be subject to salvation, but not people's savings, small or medium business. The pressure exerted today by Moscow, in particular in terms of dragging Belarus into loan dependency, is very dangerous. It paralyzes reformers' will and creates the conditions under which Belarus already by the year 2010 will be on the edge of default indeed.
Archaism of the authorities is the main hindrance on the way to modernity
There is a growing need for change in Belarus. More specifically, 52.2% of respondents said they want changes.
Have there been any violations during the elections? Judge yourself: practically in all city constituencies there were several (3 and more) candidates. In all of these constituencies candidates were elected in the first round so that the second-round run-off would be avoided, which is simply impossible mathematically.
Also, absence of exit polls certainly implies violations. If the elections have been transparent, there would be no problem with exit polls. In reality there was a benchmark - the formation of district commissions. The technology of the election and vote count process is that none of the observers can control anything unless he is a commission member.
When opposition candidates practically failed to be included in the commissions this meant the elections were over.
It is the authorities who are the main obstacle on Belarus' way to modernity.
We have the most archaic type of authorities. The authorities would like to stay in power but in so doing they want effective economic development. They will not be able to continue without effective economy. This is the conflicting task they face. I consider the task of the opposition is to create an alternative. Not only during elections, but also all the time between elections.
Early voting is “Lukashenko’s golden fund”
After three days of early voting to the House of Representatives of the fourth convocation observes have registered several dozens of violations. Among the most serious violations human rights activist Valentin Stefanovich noted lack of access for observers to any information from district election commissions and forced voting.
"Observers are not given any information on the number of ballots and electors. Authorized representatives of MP candidates are refused to be provided with the information on the course of the election campaign. Students, teachers and medical personnel are forced to vote early. According to the district election commission, more than 50% of electors have already voted at polling station No. 528 in Kolosovsky district No. 106 in Minsk. This district is located in a dormitory of the Belarusian national technical university. This is how teachers are being treated: "Dear colleagues!!! Today (25 September) all of you should urgently vote. The election districts were demanded to provide the lists of those teachers who did not vote" (advertisement in gymnasium No.1 in Slutsk). Early voting in Belarus is called "Lukashenko's golden fund".
On 21 September a meeting of the Political Council of the United Democratic Forces decided not to withdraw its MP candidates from the election campaign. Politicians decided to focus on the control over votes count. However the decision will be very difficult to fulfill as most of the electoral commissions do not include representatives of democratic forces. As noted by one of the experts, deputy chairman of BSDP (Hramada) Ihar Rynkevich, the list of deputies of the future parliament has already been made and the seat of the chairman of the parliament has been assigned to Alyaxandr Papkou (Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Belarus).
So far Belarus will not grow bananas
The Economy Ministry may cancel its resolution No.179 on up to 30% limits to the price markup on imported commodities. The Economy Ministry's document may stop supplies to Belarus of numerous commodities of critical import. The country risks staying without import commodities. "Komsomolskaya Pravda in Belarus" informs that this resolution will be replaced by another one. The new document's concept is still being debated.
S.Shushkevich: This is the beginning of the break-up of the CIS
On 12 August at a rally outside the parliament Georgian President announced his country is to leave the CIS. On 13 August the parliament of Georgia initiated legal procedures regarding Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS. On 19 August the CIS Executive Committee received an official note from Georgia that the country is leaving the Commonwealth. One of the signatories of the Belavezha Accords, the participant of the meeting in Viskuli where the decision was taken to dissolve the USSR and to establish the CIS, former chairman of the Supreme Council of Belarus Stanislau Shushkevich considers that Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is the beginning of the real break-up of the CIS.
Viachorka is outside the elections, Lyabedka goes ahead
Nomination of candidates for deputy seats in the House of Representatives of the fourth convocation was completed on 28 August. Out of 98 people from the single list of UDF, 76 people have been registered as candidates to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Among those who were denied registration are deputy chairpersons of BNF Vintsuk Viachorka and Viktar Ivashkevich, editor of an independent newspaper "Borisovskie novosti" Anatol Bukas, leader of the entrepreneurs' union Alyaksandr Makaeu and others. The opposition considers that registration has been denied for political reasons.
Recognition of the independence in return for reduced gas prices
Dmitry Medvedev signed August 26 decrees recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. EU and USA heads of state condemned this decision as "absolutely not acceptable" and "violating norms of international law." The Belarusian MoFA keeps silence while deputies urge to support Russia. Politologists consider that by recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia Lukashenka can bargain for reduced gas prices.
Belarus given a warning in Sochi
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko met with President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev in Sochi on August 19, 2008. In resolving the conflict in South Ossetia Russia acted "calmly, wisely and beautifully," remarked the President of Belarus. Russian presidential aide Syarhei Pryhodka announced that an interstate agreement on creating a unified air defence system would be signed in autumn between Russia and Belarus.
UN to increase financial assistance to Belarus
New UN Resident Coordinator/UNDP Resident Representative in Belarus Antonius Broek presented his credentials to Sergei Sidorsky, Prime Minister of Belarus. During his inauguration Mr. Broek noted that even though attracting new resources for Belarus is becoming difficult, the UN grant assistance to Belarus will make up $80-85 million in 2006-2011. New initiatives are expected in the field of development of the areas affected by the Chernobyl accident. "They will be implemented at the grassroots level, at the level of rural councils and villages. They will aim at stimulating economic activity and business development in the affected territories," Antonius Broek said.
Procurator's Office approves removing kiosks from bus stops
The association of entrepreneurs "Perspektiva" approached the Procurator General's Office with the request to give a legal opinion regarding the decision of the Minsk City Executive Committee on removing kiosks from bus stops. To a large degree, this decision contradicts the interests of entrepreneurs but also does not satisfy Minsk residents who are not able as before to buy the necessary small goods such as cigarettes, household goods, drinks, etc. The Procurator's Office now responds that there has been no violation from the side of the city authorities.
Anatoly Shumchenko, leader of the association of entrepreneurs "Perspektiva" says that we witness liquidation of the small retail trade network in the city of Minsk. Absolutely without any reason and encroaching the interests of the city with almost two million people, the authorities deprive entrepreneurs of the possibility to develop own business and to work.
Constitutional Court vested with additional authority
The Constitutional Court is vested with a right to exercise compulsory provisional control over the validity of all laws adopted by the House of Representatives of the National Assembly and approved by the Council of the Republic.
It will confirm conformity of Belarus' international agreements with the Constitution, before the president signs normative and legal acts expressing consent of Belarus with the obligatoriness of international agreements for it.
The Court is vested with a right to give an official explanation of decrees and edicts of the president related to the constitutional rights, freedoms and duties of the citizens.
Judges of the Constitutional Court will check the validity of the avenues of the rule-making activity and judicial practice of courts, law-enforcement and other state bodies. The activities of top-level government officials will also be checked.
We should not lose the chance to save for descendants our cultural treasures
The Belarusian voluntary society for protection of the monuments of history and culture (BDTAPGK) is concerned with the fate of the national heritage as it sees violations of law committed by the state structures, which must act as guardians of the Constitution and laws of Belarus however in reality work towards destruction of monuments of architecture. In this connection, chairman of the Republican association BDTAPGK Anton Astapovich appeals to the pubic, political parties and mass media.
Only in the past two years Minsk, Grodno and other Belarusian localities have lost dozens or even hundreds of monuments of culture and history. Nothing can save from destruction, even putting on the State List of Historical and Cultural Values. Both local executive authorities and the Ministry of Culture, which is an authorized state body to exercise control over adherence to the legislation on protection of historical and cultural heritage, are directly related to the process of violations of normative and legislative base. This inevitably leads to more and more losses of historical and cultural treasures.
Is it early to speak about a new position of Poland?
The information was broadly circulated last week regarding a new position of Poland on the issue of relations between Belarus and the European Union. The most impressive are certainly proposals from the Polish side to abandon the politics of sanctions against our country. A specialist in the field of international relations Andrei Fiodarau comments on the situation upon
request from the correspondent of EXPERTBY.ORG.
"It is a thousand pities that we cannot deny that our state is under constant threat of losing its independence. If a united Europe had joined the US economic sanctions, then for known reasons the material well-being of the population would have worsened significantly. No doubt under the circumstances in order to calm down the wave of mass disturbance, Minsk would have decided to agree to those conditions which Moscow has been continuously suggesting lately and which sooner or later would have led us to actually giving up our sovereignty."
Dura lex, sed… lex? Reflections against the background of the monument to Bagdanovich
Chairman of the republican society for protection of monuments Antos Astapovich answered the site EXPERTBY.ORG correspondent's questions.
In his opinion, the problem is not in moving the monument, even if it is from the central to the side alley, but that in so doing a gross violation of the Law has been committed. What we are talking about here is the level of legal awareness among those people who take decisions in the country. Mr. Astapovich gave the following reply to the question why the monument was moved: "I have always explained motivation in very simple terms. I have never sought politics or ideology as the answer lies beneath the surface. It is money in the first place. Even with the monument to Bagdanovich everything becomes very clear. Just analyse this question from the point of view of how it can be profitable. And this is very profitable: in the place where the monument stood before a big fountain is being constructed. What is the fountain? These are earth works, these are engineering networks, and these are installation works. In a nutshell, it is one of the most financially expensive works according to the construction norms and job prices. Here you come to the motivation which is to utilize as much as possible funds from the state budget."
The issue of return to the 11-year education and termination of specialized school classes will be soon finally and forever resolved. Not a bad move in order to damage the image of the state and its leadership. Well, if the school reform has been initiated in order to divert public attention from some other, more important issues (e.g. sale of Belarusian enterprises to Russian oligarchs), then it can be understood. However, if these changes in the school system, that have been declared so loudly, are a self-sufficient occurrence in the information widespread, then their justification should be... well, so to say... further elaborated. Indeed all around us, we see the transition towards 12-year education - Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia...The majority of countries have specialization in senior classes, and those who don't have it try to create it... After long discussions and deliberations, by the way... And suddenly in the very centre of Europe there is a country which announces, that it is not able and is not willing to ensure for its pupils the same conditions as in other countries...
Prospects for liberalizing the Belarusian economy
Head of the Mizes Scientific Centre Yaroslav Romanchuk answers the site expertby.org correspondent's questions on the prospects of liberalizing the Belarusian economy.
- In your opinion, what needs to be changed in the country to enable liberalization?
- Firstly, the government needs to be changed. It should include the people who can propose to the country a systemic reform policy.
- How do you see the main directions of this reform?
- A systemic reform implies, firstly, budget and tax reform and, secondly, banking reform, as well as a law on transparent and honest privatization. In addition, it is the adoption of a law on social guarantees which we also have proposed to the authorities. It also includes administrative reform, i.e. liquidation and neutralization of conflictual interests which are widely present in our government structures. All these reforms need to be conducted at the same time with judicial reform and provision of full-fledged freedom for obtaining information as a guarantee of transparency of processes, responsibility and absence of corruption among government officials.
As a matter of fact, the key issue is who will be managing all this undertaking. If the capital comes here, yes, it will be bad for the elite, yes, it will be bad for the national business, as it will given secondary subordinate roles. Business will pay the politics which it carries out today.
So who is IN FAVOUR? About switch to 11 years
Officers of the Belarus Education and Health Ministries are highly partial to the backward transition to 11-year education, they do not consider this reform timely, well thought out and rational, but they are certain that others (ministries, parents and teachers) for some odd reason are IN FAVOUR of this reform. On behalf of parents, a correspondent of EXPERTBY.ORG declares that parents are also against such school reform which leads to aggravation of the situation in education and in society as a whole.
All the concerned parties underline absence of research, discussions, consultations and competent polls on the subject. Everyone understands that starting the next reform without accomplishing properly the previous one is a rather hasty and unreasonable move by the government. Everyone understands that this will negatively affect the system of education, children's health and even the image of the country. Everyone is against. We have not however managed to find those in favour.
Russia has decided to do without Belarus
Last week Dmitry Medvedev, the new president of the Russian Federation, paid his first foreign visits to Kazakhstan and Chinese People's Republic, while a visit to Belarus, which as before is viewed by a significant number of Russians and Belarusians as the closest ally of the their country, has not been discussed yet. Although this fact is not surprising, it gives grounds for revisiting the issue of relations between the two countries and for reflecting on the current status and prospects of the Belarusian-Russian relations. Should we expect any changes in these? Politologist Kyril Koktysh answers this question to the correspondent of EXPERTBY.ORG.
The first visit normally marks the priorities of the country and its leader. Selection of Kazakhstan and China as such countries logically outlines those priorities by which Russia will be guided under Medvedev.
The question "why not Belarus" does not seem legally qualified, as indeed it is hard to argue that Belarus has been a priority also before. When decisions are taken on the construction of the Baltic Pipeline System-2 and on the filling of the new pipeline with 40 million tons out of those 70 which now go through "Druzhba", i.e. through the Belarusian territory, it means as a minimum that even in the short-term perspective Russia has decided to do without Belarus and has even invested in its bypass strategy sufficiently big money, so that it would be impossible even to speak about reviewing this strategy.
If medical staff gets pay raise, nothing will be left for treatment of patients
The Council of Ministers of Belarus has adopted an act which allows purchase of expendable materials for complicated operations by patients themselves, thus actually recognizing that hospitals lack funds for treatment.
Last year Belarus spent USD 164 per capita for health care needs. On average, health care expenditure in our country constitutes 4-4.2% of GDP, compared to 9% in the European Union countries and 15% in the U.S.
Lukashenko the politician knew how to fight for votes and proclaimed from the house-tops that he would remedy the situation. It was promised that in the next five-year term (2006-2010) not less than 7% of GDP would be allocated for health care. However the pre-election impulse of the newly re-elected president has come to nought - the planned funding has never reached the health care system.
In 2008 one trillion and 26 million roubles were allocated for the health care system from the republican budget. For comparison, in 2008 it is planned to spend one trillion and 240 billion for the army, while for the power institutions, the Ministry of Interior and KGB, it has been decided to allocate almost two times more of the budget funding than for the whole health care system, that is 1 trillion and 949 billion roubles.
Some documentation in pursuance of the Order of the President of the Republic of Belarus has already been received at schools.
It contains enough surprises.
Notwithstanding the fact that preservation of gymnasiums and lyceums is declared, their specialization has been reduced practically to zero. According to the hourly work load received by gymnasiums, instead of 12-14 hours of physics and mathematics senior pupils will have 7, that is 5 hours of mathematics and 2 hours of physics.
The country needs workers hands. However it is not clear why the leadership of the country connects workers hands with the reduction of educational level. All over the world the complexity of equipment implies that "workers hands" are accompanied by clever heads.
An attempt to make education match the outdated manufacturing equipment is a very peculiar solution. Isn't it easier to do the opposite and to modernize enterprises, to provide them with modern equipment requiring creative and intellectual labour from workers?
The essential fact proved by history on repeated occasions is that the reforms, which are started but not completed, negatively affect the image of the country leadership.
What to expect from the school reform
Our school children and their parents hardly had time to get used to the 12-year secondary education system, and now they have to get used to a new, that is to say, old 11-year system.
Alexander Lukashenko mentioned this more than once.
"I know schooling. The transition to the 11-year secondary education system will not cause big problems. We need to revise curricula, but we will do it rapidly. In the last resort, we will be providing recommendations during one year, so people should not shout that we have dug in the money pledged for printing new text-books and curricula", expressed his confidence the head of the state.
"In a year we will develop new curricula, and in two-three years will gradually change the text-books.
The transition to the 12-year secondary education system started ten years ago."
However, the backward transition to the 11-year education, to all appearances, will result in another serious reform of the education system.
Elections are coming soon. Insight into the future through the prism of the past
After the jump in prices, the current status of the Belarusian electorate is close to the year 2001 rather than to 2006. Therefore the results of the coming elections are not difficult to predict. The strength of habit should not be written off either. The authorities build their policy on demoralization and atomization of the society. As a result, for a person with mass consciousness it is hard to imagine a different course of events. Despite all grumbles, when given a tough choice (authorities - opposition), such people's preferences will go to a habitual bird in the hand rather than to two in the bush. "Authoritarism gains a foothold in such conditions not because it holds strong political trump cards in terms of political arguments, aims, national development programmes, but because public indifference deprives the society of its ability to resist the arbitrariness of the authorities".
In these conditions the opposition should focus its efforts not on gaining additional votes, but on the change of the quality of support from the democratic electorate. The growth in prices for energy resources has moved the needle on the economy barometer of Belarus from the mark "clear" to "dull". It will take a year for the society to feel an imminent threat, consequently there is a growing demand for an alternative vision of the developments. If opposition parties would like to have positive outcomes in the next election campaign, they must take charge of the work for meeting this demand.
What you should know about radiation and Chernobyl tragedy
The UN report released in 2005 states that the Chernobyl disaster could cause up to about 4,000 eventual deaths. However independent experts consider that the real figure is much higher.
The number of thyroid cancer cases among children after the Chernobyl disaster has increased by 200 times. The number of breast cancers has grown sharply. Growth is predicted in urogenital tumours, lung and gastric cancers.
The Chernobyl accident released between 50 million and 250 million curies of radiation, the radioactive equivalent of at least 100 nuclear bombs.
70 % of the total radioactive fallout from the accident in 1986 descended on Belarus. About 22 % of the country is contaminated with radioactive caesium-137. The contaminated area still constitutes 21% of the territory of the republic.
When projected over a 30- year recovery period, the total damage to Belarus caused by the Chernobyl disaster comes to 240 billion US dollars. This figure was made public by the Deputy Minister of Economy Andrei Tur in 2002. This amount equals 32 Belarus' budgets of the year 1985.
“Scientists for non-nuclear Belarus”: “Peaceful atom”, 'pro' (about) and contra
Until now experts and public have not been given any feasibility study for NPP construction. This contradicts the Aarhus Convention according to which each country signatory to the Convention, including Belarus, guarantees the right of access to information, participation of the public in the decision-making process and access to judicial bodies on environmental issues.
For the majority of the citizens who are familiar with the issue and have no financial interest in the construction of NPP it is obvious that Belarus does not need NPP. Furthermore, NPP is dangerous not only in ecological terms but also in terms of state security. It would be more reasonable to direct resources for modernization of industrial enterprises and Thermal Power Plants, energy saving programmes and science instead of allocating funds for a plainly ambiguous and extremely risky project of NPP construction in Belarus.
World Economic Crisis does not Threaten Belarus. As yet
The events that have taken place recently in the world economy more and more often raise the question: where is the economy actually going? Why are gold and oil prices tending upwards? Why is the American dollar losing its value? Isn't it time for a new world currency? What should Belarus expect from these events? Mikhail Koval, expert of a Russian company engaged in Asset Management, gives his commentary to EXPERTBY.ORG. "A lot of these problems are not urgent for Belarus yet, as the country does not have its stock market. Of course if a country has private enterprises then it has a stock market, since it is considered that when a person owns an enterprise or some part of it he can somehow transfer his possession, sell it, etc. Quite a different matter is to what extent these procedures are effective, to what extent the exchange of rights of possession of enterprises is free. If the procedure is too complicated and requires a lot of expenditures it will be difficult to attract foreign investors, and the market will not take place. Thus, in terms of the needs of the business I am engaged in, the Belarusian stock market does not exist. At least de facto.
The speed with which Belarus is getting into the debtor's prison is indicated by the growth rates of both internal and external debts of recent years which are far too high, 5-6 times higher than the GDP growth rate.
According to the National Bank of the RB, at the beginning of the year 2008 the total external debt of the country, commercial banks included, has reached USD12,719 billions and increased only during the year by almost USD 6 billions or doubled, while debts of the government increased 3,5 times, of the economy (nonfinancial sector) by 58%, commercial banks by 73%.
It is impossible to prevent Belarus' coming into the stage of accumulation of the problems leading to inevitable highly expensive monetary, bank, and foreign debt crises by private measures. The adoption and realization of the programme for market reforms under democratization and absolute supremacy of law is vital now.
The truth behind the Belarusian-American diplomatic crisis was revealed where it was expected. "I would like to inform you about the problems in our foreign trade especially those related to the position of the USA leadership", stated A. Lukashenko at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister V. Zubkov on 21 March. The Belarusian president thus confirmed that the primary aim of the crisis with Washington was not to avoid A. Kozulin's release or democratization of the republic, which is by the way not the same thing. The aim of Minsk in the crisis with Washington was utilitarian and traditional, namely to sell "faithfulness to the union's obligation" for concrete resource and financial subsidies from Russia, which was demonstrated at the Union Council of Ministers.
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